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Market-Structure Reconstruction

Institutions finish buying before the chart moves.

Radon reconstructs market structure from dark-pool and OTC flow, then scores institutional accumulation while the lit price is still quiet. The read comes from Interactive Brokers and Unusual Whales data, not a model that guesses. Nothing routes until it clears four sequential gates and seven milestones: convexity, defined risk, Kelly size. No black box. Every edge is a named, testable mechanism.

Inputs Interactive Brokers realtimeUnusual Whales dark-pool printsRegime read across four orthogonal models
Figure 1Dark-pool buy-pressure leads realized price · NVDA · 30 sessions
lead≈ 4 sessionsaccumulation detectedflow score 84 · acceleratingprice confirms+11.4% over windowdark-pool buy-pressure (z-score)realized price (indexed)+2σ0−2σt−30t−12t
Aggregated off-exchange buy-pressure rises into a measurable lead before the lit-market move. Radon scores the lead window, not the breakout. The breakout is where everyone else is already looking.Source IB + UWConfidence High
Plate 2The instrument · unified dashboard cockpit · live session
Radon dashboard: portfolio snapshot, working orders, an opportunity rail, and a market newsfeed in a single cockpit.Radon dashboard, dark theme: portfolio snapshot, working orders, opportunity rail, and newsfeed.
The terminal itself. A single cockpit holds the portfolio snapshot, working orders, an opportunity rail scored from flow, and the market newsfeed. The conceptual figure above is the thesis; this is the instrument that runs it.Source Radon live sessionConfidence Live data

Thesis 01Flow · Dark-Pool Reconstruction

The edge is structural, not predictive.

Off-exchange venues clear large institutional orders away from the lit tape. By the time size prints on the exchange, the position is built. Radon reconstructs that activity from the print stream and scores it as accumulation or distribution before the move appears on a chart. Radon calls this market-structure reconstruction: rebuilding what institutions did off-exchange from the prints they could not hide.

The lead is measured, not assumed. Accumulation shows up in the print stream sessions before it shows up in price, and a score that misses its threshold is discarded, whatever the chart looks like.

Source

Off-exchange and OTC prints, sweeps, and options flow from Unusual Whales, reconciled against Interactive Brokers realtime tape.

Mechanism

Volume is venue-weighted and normalized to a rolling z-score, then directional pressure is inferred from print-side and size clustering.

Evidence

A threshold-crossing flow score that precedes the lit move, with the lead window measured per ticker and surfaced in the scanner.

The wiring from Unusual Whales prints to Interactive Brokers orders is documented end to end in the integration dossier.

Exhibit 3Dark-pool flow scanner · institutional accumulation score
TickerReadLeadFlow score
NVDAAccumulation4d84
WULFAccumulation6d79
SMCIAccumulation3d71
SPYNeutral·48
TSLADistribution5d33
Scores above the accumulation threshold with a positive lead are candidates. The scanner ranks by lead-adjusted conviction, not raw volume.Source UWConfidence High

Thesis 02Convexity · The Four Gates

A signal is permission to look. Convexity is permission to trade.

Every candidate is forced through four sequential gates before a contract is built. The gates are ordered. A failure at any gate stops the trade and names itself. There is no override that lets conviction outrank structure. Every structure the gates admit is catalogued, with a per-structure risk verdict, in the defined-risk structure catalog.

Gate 01

Convexity

The payoff must be asymmetric. Defined-risk structures only, with capped loss known at submit.

gain ≥ 2 × loss
Gate 02

Edge

A specific, data-backed dark-pool or OTC signal that has not yet moved the lit price.

signal precedes price
Gate 03

Risk

Position size is fractional Kelly with a hard ceiling. No single position exceeds the cap.

≤ 2.5% bankroll
Gate 04

Naked Shorts

Historically blocked undefined-risk shorts. Disabled by operator policy; logic preserved for re-enable.

no naked shorts

Thesis 03Regime · Four Orthogonal Models

No single number describes a market.

Regime is read across four independent models, each measuring a different mechanical pressure. They are deliberately orthogonal. When they agree, the read is strong. When they diverge, the divergence is itself the signal.

CRIreads · tail risk

Crash Risk Index

Method. Four components, each scored 0 to 25: VIX level and rate of change, VVIX and its ratio to VIX, COR1M implied correlation, and SPX distance from its 100-day average. Published weights and thresholds. Reads the regime that forces systematic selling.

elevatedCRI 0.71 · rising
GEXreads · dealer positioning

Gamma Exposure

Method. Aggregate dealer gamma by strike. Positive gamma pins and dampens; negative gamma amplifies. Surfaces walls (resistance) and magnets (gravity) as price levels.

spotwall
VCG-Rreads · panic / capitulation

Volatility-Credit Gap

Method. Tracks the spread between equity-implied vol and credit-implied stress. A widening gap with credit leading flags panic that the options market has not yet priced.

gap 2.4σ · widening
GRGreads · rotation

Gamma Rotation Gap

Method. Measures the migration of dealer gamma across sectors and tenors. A rotating gap signals where positioning is moving next, ahead of the flow following it.

rotation into semis

The tail-risk model carries its own dossier: how the Crash Risk Index is built from VIX, VVIX, implied correlation, and SPX trend, and how its bands are read.

Plate 4GEX · dealer gamma by strike · live session
Radon GEX panel: dealer gamma exposure plotted by strike, with walls and magnets marked and a directional bias read.Radon GEX panel, dark theme: dealer gamma exposure by strike, with walls, magnets, and bias.
The Gamma Exposure model rendered as a real exhibit. Dealer net gamma by strike resolves into the gamma exposure levels the method note describes: walls and magnets.Source Radon live sessionConfidence Live data
Plate 5VCG-R · volatility-credit gap · live session
Volatility-Credit Gap panic detector: the spread between equity-implied vol and credit-implied stress, with the gap and its direction.Volatility-Credit Gap panic detector, dark theme: equity-implied vol versus credit-implied stress.
The panic detector in production. When credit-implied stress leads equity vol and the gap widens, the model flags capitulation the options market has not yet priced.Source Radon live sessionConfidence Live data

MethodThe Pipeline · Seven Milestones

From dark-pool signal to routed order: seven milestones.

A candidate is not a trade. Between the first flow score and a routed contract sit seven milestones, run in order. Each is a checkpoint with a pass condition. Nothing skips ahead.

The procedure is published in full, thresholds included, in the working method, and the sizing milestone's math in the fractional Kelly sizing policy.

Detect

Flow score crosses the accumulation or distribution threshold with a positive lead window. The signal is logged with its source and confidence.

gate · edge

Corroborate

Cross-check the read against the four regime models. A signal fighting the regime is downgraded, not ignored. Agreement raises conviction.

regime · CRI / GEX / VCG-R / GRG

Locate

Map dealer gamma to find walls and magnets. These define realistic targets and the strikes where structure resists or accelerates price.

levels · walls / magnets

Structure

Select a defined-risk options structure that expresses the thesis with convexity. Multi-leg combos are preferred over single-leg directional bets.

convexity · gain ≥ 2× loss

Size

Fractional Kelly sets the position against bankroll, capped hard at the per-position ceiling. Conviction adjusts within the cap, never past it.

risk · ≤ 2.5% bankroll

Verify

The mandatory pre-trade chokepoint computes max-loss, margin impact, and naked-short exposure on the assembled combo. It is not optional and cannot be bypassed.

chokepoint · pre-trade risk

Route

Only a structure that cleared every prior milestone is assembled into an Interactive Brokers BAG combo and submitted. The audit trail records the full chain.

execute · IB BAG combo

RegistryNamed Edges · Mechanism & Risk Profile

Named options strategies, not a black box.

Every strategy is a named, testable mechanism. Each entry states the edge source, the mechanism it exploits, and the structure's risk profile. Convexity is recorded as a target ratio.

StrategyEdge sourceMechanismStructureConvexityRisk
Dark LeadflowOff-exchange accumulationBuild a long call structure into a confirmed dark-pool lead before the lit move.Call debit spread≥ 3.0×Defined
Gamma PinpositioningDealer gamma wallsSell convexity into a positive-gamma wall where dealers dampen movement toward expiry.Iron condor≥ 2.2×Defined
Panic Gapvol / creditWidening VCG-RBuy tail convexity when credit-implied stress leads equity vol and the gap is widening.Put backspread≥ 4.0×Defined
Rotation FrontflowGRG sector migrationPosition ahead of gamma rotating into a sector before the following flow arrives.Call calendar≥ 2.5×Defined
Crash HedgetailElevated CRILayer cheap tail protection when the Crash Risk Index enters the elevated band.Put debit spread≥ 5.0×Defined
LEAP Mispricingvol surfaceIV term mispricingBuy long-dated convexity where the surface underprices realized term vol versus the model.Long LEAP call≥ 2.0×Defined

EvidenceAudit Trail · Journal & Portfolio

The record is the proof.

Every routed contract is journaled with its full decision chain: the flow score that detected it, the regime read that corroborated it, the structure that expressed it, and the realized outcome. The journal is the canonical store. The portfolio and order views both derive from it.

Nothing is reconstructed after the fact. P&L is lot-matched to basis, and the same row that placed the trade carries its result.

06-12NVDA call debit spread · Dark Lead+2.7R
06-09SPX iron condor · Gamma Pin+1.9R
06-05WULF call calendar · Rotation Front−1.0R
05-30SPY put debit spread · Crash Hedge+4.1R
05-22SMCI call debit spread · Dark Lead+3.3R

Source IB journalBasis lot-matchedR multiple of risked

Plate 6Structure-aware portfolio · live session
Radon portfolio view: net liquidation, day P&L, unrealized P&L, and a table of defined-risk positions with ticker, structure, direction, entry, and P&L.Radon portfolio view, dark theme: net liquidation, day P&L, unrealized P&L, and a table of defined-risk positions.
The portfolio derives from the same journal that placed each trade. Every open position carries its structure, direction, entry, and lot-matched P&L. Nothing is reconstructed after the fact.Source Radon live sessionConfidence Live data

AppendixQuestions · Plain Answers

Asked before the demo.

The questions traders bring to Radon, answered plainly. Data sources, broker requirements, and how this instrument differs from a levels dashboard.

What is Radon?

Radon is a market-structure research terminal. It reconstructs institutional accumulation and distribution from dark-pool and OTC prints, scores the flow before the lit price moves, and routes only defined-risk options structures that clear four sequential gates. A free demo runs at demo.radon.run.

How does Radon read dark-pool flow?

Radon ingests off-exchange and OTC prints from Unusual Whales and reconciles them against the Interactive Brokers realtime tape. Volume is venue-weighted and normalized to a rolling z-score, and directional pressure is inferred from print-side and size clustering. The output is a flow score with a measured lead window per ticker.

Does Radon work with Interactive Brokers?

Yes. Interactive Brokers is Radon's realtime data and execution backbone. Cleared structures are assembled into IB combo orders after a mandatory pre-trade risk check, and every fill is journaled with lot-matched P&L. Live trading requires a funded Interactive Brokers account; Radon itself is not a broker.

Do I need an Unusual Whales subscription?

For live use, yes. Unusual Whales supplies the dark-pool prints and options flow that Radon's flow scoring is built on, alongside the Interactive Brokers tape. The free demo at demo.radon.run requires no subscription to either service.

How is Radon different from SpotGamma or MenthorQ?

SpotGamma and MenthorQ publish dealer-positioning levels as dashboards; Radon consumes MenthorQ levels as one data source. What Radon adds is discipline around the models: CRI, GEX, VCG-R, and GRG regime reads paired with four gates, fractional Kelly sizing hard-capped at 2.5% of bankroll per position, and a journaled audit trail from signal to routed order.

What is GEX and how does Radon use it?

GEX is aggregate dealer gamma exposure by strike. Positive gamma pins and dampens price movement; negative gamma amplifies it. Radon maps GEX into walls and magnets, which set realistic targets and mark the strikes where market structure resists or accelerates price.

Can I use Radon with Robinhood?

No. Robinhood is not integrated, and Radon does not route orders through it. A Robinhood user can explore the free demo at demo.radon.run, but live use requires an Interactive Brokers account. Radon is a research instrument, not a broker.

Is there a free demo?

Yes. demo.radon.run is a full demo instance with seeded data and no brokerage connection required. It shows the flow scanner, the four regime models, the gate discipline, and the trade journal at no cost.


Colophon

For operators who want the method, not the noise.

Radon is built for a single operator who treats trading as research. If you read this far and nodded, you already understand the discipline. Convexity or no trade.